Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 14, chapter 82 - Less Wrong

7 Post author: FAWS 04 April 2012 02:53AM

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Comment author: ArisKatsaris 04 April 2012 03:16:44AM *  10 points [-]

Story-logic would indicate that she is indeed innocent, and we as readers have evidence that someone has indeed been messing with her mind, but Harry doesn't know what we as readers know.

Harry's had 7 months to know that Hermione isn't a sociopath or a psychopath, that she's a very kind and moral and ethical person instead.

What's the prior probability he should therefore assign to this person, out of all of Hogwarts, to be the one to commit a cold-blooded murder on another 11-year-old kid? I think he's giving the hypothesis of her actual guilt pretty much all the weight that it deserves - effectively zero.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 04 April 2012 06:19:48AM 7 points [-]

See also: Amanda Knox.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 05 April 2012 06:02:04AM 4 points [-]

Who, it may be noted, was eventually found innocent.

Comment author: Alsadius 05 April 2012 05:06:48AM 2 points [-]

Yeah, this set of chapters started making a lot more sense when I realized it was a gigantic Amanda Knox allegory.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 05 April 2012 05:50:03AM 10 points [-]

Well, sure, but it's also an allegory for everyone sent to prison for using marijuana by politicians who somehow manage to care more about other things than about smashing the life of some nice person who never hurt anyone; and an allegory for the public response to 9/11/2001. Et cetera. If story events only allegorized one insanity at a time, the story would have to be three times as long to make the same set of points.

Comment author: khafra 04 April 2012 12:32:02PM 4 points [-]

I was pretty sure that "prior probability of a normal girl just hauling off and murdering someone in cold blood" was a Knox allusion. I wonder if Ms. Knox herself has read it.