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Percent_Carbon comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 14, chapter 82 - Less Wrong
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More likely it was his intention that things sit like that.
He 'lost' on purpose. But before he did, he taught Dumbledore to lose in the hostage and ransom thing.
Step 1 : gather the fearful and lead them by fear
Voldemort championed the old blood that felt threatened by muggleborn and was very cruel to them to keep them in line.
Step 2 : force most powerful opponents into taking actions contrary to their ideology
Voldemort probably did any number of nasty things to break lower rank ideologists and might have done an evil thing or two that did not break Dumbledore, but eventually he was successful.
Step 2a : keep a lid on things so they cannot resolve themselves through reasonable application of voilence
Voldemort killed Narcissa once he knew Dumbledore was conditioned to accept the blame and the conflict extending truce that came after.
Step 3 : watch for an opportunity to exit the stage, take it
Voldemort faked his death when he found circumstances that could make a death event of sufficient believabilty for the masses.
Step 4 : hide out under assumed identities while enemies and former subordinates continue to not resolve things either peaceably or voilently for as long as necessary
Voldemort is Jeffe or Quirrell or any number of other people for ten years. He might also have been technically dead for some or all of that time. That does not significantly alter the scenario.
Step 5 : gather tools and staff as opportunities present themselves
Voldemort has the Resurrection Stone, Bella, and who knows what all else.
Step 6 : watch for an opportunity to stage a coup over either side of now old conflict, take it
Voldemort may have multiple scenarios for returning to power. Right now he is playing king maker for Boy Who Lived.
Step 7 : smash opposing side of nearly meaningless conflict because they have been conditioned to fight entirely the wrong kind of war, unite as many factions as possible
Step 8 : dominate world
Step 9 : throw tasteful party with select guests and absolutely, positively, never, ever monologue
Downvoted for massive violation of Lucius' Law.
Please elaborate.
From Ch. 24:
Your plan is unworkable, because the probability that everything needed for the plan to happen would happen is too low. HPMOR!Voldemort is not a fool, so he would not have planned an unworkable plan (and, as Hat and Cloak, advised Blaise Zambini not to try such plans). Therefore this is not Voldemort's plan.
Fine. You accept that Voldemort did rise to power, yes? Let that be one plot that had however many "different things to happen" but worked. That is one plot with one payout that is collected without being dependent on other plots and covers step 1.
In step 2 his plot depends on his most idealistic enemies breaking from their ideals. That is 1 "different things to happen". He maybe tries a lot of different time, and eventually the Aberforth Event occurs, so the plot progresses.
Step 2a is the same plot and includes another "different thing." After he kills Narcissa, his formerly idealistic enemies must claim responsibility. He has conditioned them to do this in the way he has spread terror and treated them, so it does not come out of the blue, but it is the second "different thing" for that plot.
It works and he is rewarded with a conflict without escalation, where he can continue to amass power while his own side does not get out of control and his enemies become more reasonable and less idealistic, therefore easier to manipulate and less unpredictable. This second plot covers steps 2 and 2a. He could continue at this point as he had, building power for a faction, taking different steps or starting different plots.
The third plot has the goal of unity and only depends on two "different things." The first is that he have an opportunity to step out of the game, the second is that he has an opportunity to step back in. Again, there is the throwing shit at the wall approach, here. He can set up situation after situation that might lead to an opportunity to step out or in, and take the ones that he expects to work best.
When this plot is completed, he is rewarded with control of a new third side in a two sided war. He can do what he wants with this new faction, execute any number of plots from this point forward. This covers steps 3, 4, & 5.
The fourth plot is what he is preparing for, but isn't executing as far as I can tell, taking over the government. Whatever this depends on, you know he's up to something and this is no worse an answer than many other reasonable answers.
I'm fairly certain that Voldemort is not planning a party, though. That was a joke.
Well, yes, if it was planned from the beginning. It could have been improvised. To summarize Percent_Carbon in a way that brings out the potential that the plan he explained was improvised... Step 1. Conquer Britain as Voldemort. Doesn't work as well as hoped, Britain is divided, not united. Step 2. Use power to try to set up a situation that you think you can exploit later. Wait years before you see a good way to exploit it Step 3. See the way Harry Potter came out, see an opportunity to conquer a united Britain, and go for it
Considering that he was winning the war before making his untimely exit in the early 80s, this strategy seems overly complicated.
So Dumbledore was hiding behind a curtain, aced Voldemort, and carved a tasteful little scar into Harry's forehead? Because that seems to be the closest thing to a conclusion one can draw from that method as applied to Godric's Hollow.
You seem to be doing the opposite than what the quote indicates, trying to find ways in which Voldemort supposedly benefitted, in order to present him as the person behind every ploy.
If Voldemort benefitted from his supposed defeat at the night of Godric's Hollow, we've not yet seen how.
If Voldemort benefitted from the burning of Narcissa Malfoy, we've not yet seen how.
You are following the exact opposite process than the quote indicates. Which may be okay, after all it's only one technique, not the ONLY possible technique, but nonetheless quoting it as an explanation for your reasoning seems misguided.
Mostly agree with this comment, but it seems likely to me that HPMOR!Voldemort's intentions in going to Godric's Hollow were different than Canon!Voldemort's, given that HPMOR!Voldemort is a lot smarter than Canon!Voldemort.
I don't think similar reasoning applies to Narcissa's death, because it's less likely that Voldemort would have been able to foresee its effects.
I agree with this. For that, and also for other reasons, I assign less than 20% probability that Voldemort went to Godric's Hollow for a purpose as simple as "attempt to kill baby Harry".
Oh, but even Canon!Voldemort meant to make a Horcrux when he went to Godric's Hollow (or so speculated Dumbledore in book 6, IIRC). So I think there must have been more to it than even that.
Canon!Dumbledore speculated that Voldemort was going to kill Harry, and then create his last Horcrux using that death -- but killing Harry was his primary purpose for going there; the fact that Voldemort also meant to make the last Horcrux at the time was incidental.
If you need further clarification about what I believe, I don't think HPMoR!Voldemort purposed to kill Harry at all that night - atleast not physically.
This line seems to have caused some confusion downthread. On Percent_Carbon's view, t's a very good explanation for the reasoning, in that it seems to have generated understanding of the reasoning.
Perhaps equivocating on 'explanation'?
Well, I don't know about "very good." But it worked this time. I don't think that was a good way to do what I wanted done, though. So I'll probably not do that again.
Thanks for the defense, though.
I'd propose that he has a slightly different plan. I'm going to give you my pet theory here so hold onto your hats.
I think Quirrellmort probably decided at one point in the past that it would be way easier to take over magical Britain if everyone thought he'd already failed at doing so. I think he's probably going for control of both sides. Imagine if Darth Vader had created the rebel alliance in order to funnel potential opponents into a harmless straw-opposition: he could let them attempt the occasional coup, always avoiding any real cost to himself and throw them the occasional minor victory to keep them on the hook.
To quote the chapter Contagious Lies:
That's obviously not the same plan I'm talking about, but we can see that Quirrell has at least been thinking along similar lines to me. I can see a number of different ways he could have formulated this plan, but the simplest one seems to be:
This is also foregrounded in Coordination Problems 2 and 3. Quirrell wants Harry to bind the population together under him and Harry makes a short speech about the dangers of group thinking. Quirrell's reaction is one of anger - obviously he can't have Harry breaking the monopoly that the Order of the Phoenix has on do-gooding, because that opens the field up for thousands of free-agent challengers to Quirrell's power. It also mirrors Harry and Draco's plan to play the two sides off against each other, except obviously Harry is aiming for world optimisation, not domination.
Finally, Dumbledore seems to think Voldemort is still alive, but he's either pretending to have irrational justifications for this or he really does. I think it's waaaay more likely that Dumbledore is just playing dumb, since he's definitely smarter than he lets on, as evidenced by his and Snape's big discussion about the Bellatrix thing, but I'm not entirely sure how much Dumbly knows for sure. Quirrell knows Dumbledore acts as though he thinks Voldemort is still alive. The real wildcard is Harry, because Quirrell probably wasn't expecting him to be such a major agent in all this, he's almost certainly playing Xanatos chess at this point trying to keep ahead of Harry and keep his plan alive.
Or at least that's my theory.
If I were in Voldemort's shoes I definitely wouldn't want to stake decades of work on a plan that could be derailed by my "hero" simply dying in an accident, and that's disregarding all the ways he could fail to be properly impressionable.
I don't think either of those represent a big risk to him. Consider that he knows this particular child will be under Dumbledore's constant care, and that Voldemort himself will always be available to step in and rescue the kid if there's a risk of him dying early. Obviously that doesn't lower the risk to zero, but it's still a big reduction. Also, remember that during the "grooming" phase of this plan it'll be an eleven-year-old against the most intelligent and insidious wizard in history: given what Voldemort did to Bellatrix it seems like he would be very confident of successfully being able to brainwash Harry.
So, the risk of Harry dying or being unbrainwashable seems low, but it also pays to consider that either contingency wouldn't stop the plan in it's tracks. If Harry dies (or has to be killed because he can't be brainwashed) there are a whole battalion of potential replacements who could emerge as the new posterboy for good - Neville being clearly at the top of the list. Harry is the >best< choice, but he isn't the only one.
I've actually cooled a little on this theory since the latest arc began because I think someone is clearly trying to turn Harry evil (see my theory from earlier in the thread). That said, I still think this would be a workable plan for attaining uncontested dark lordship.
So, basically the plot of 1984.
Voldemort won't always be able to step in and rescue him, he doesn't have him under constant tabs, it's not like he'd instantly know if something bad were about to happen to him.
There are other ways aside from being oppositional that Harry could have failed to be properly impressionable. For instance, he could have been extremely stupid (there would be no way to tell when he was a baby,) and it would have been impossible to set him up as a figurehead leader because he was too obviously incompetent.
In Voldemort's place, I would never attempt a plan like this, because the odds of success, even at their best, do not justify sinking a couple of decades into its execution. Given the same amount of time, I'd expect him to be able to take over the country several times over. I could probably take over the country several times over in his place, given the same level of power along with an outside perspective on wizarding society, and I don't think I'm as good at plotting as Quirrelmort.
I'm betting on what happened with Harry not being intentional, because, for all the ways that one can postulate that the events that followed benefited Quirrelmort, I think the fact that he lost his body, much of his power, all his servants, and a decade of time, should shift our prior considerably away from whatever happened that night being deliberate.
Again, I've cooled on this theory myself, so I think I probably agree with you in the broad sense that I don't think this is exactly what happened. I'm still going to argue a few of the points you made though, because if we share an opinion but disagree on the justifications for it I still think that's a disagreement we should try to heal. Better to be justified but coincidentally wrong than unjustified but coincidentally right, right?
Anyway, I agree with your first point. remember that I said:
So what I'm saying is, having Voldemort hanging around in the wings won't save you from everything, but it certainly won't hurt your chances of survival. There's nothing to say Voldemort hasn't done little things to increase Harry's survival like magically lower the risk of lightning strikes in Surrey. Wizards are more durable than muggles AND Harry also has Dumbledore's protection AND there's no absolute reason Voldemort has to use /Harry/ as his posterboy for good - he's just the best available choice. So I don't think the risk of Harry dying unexpectedly is great enough to invalidate this plan, although I do agree that it would be inconvenient if it happened.
Your second point, on the other hand, I have to disagree with prima facie. The wizarding world in general has no problem taking idiots as leaders - look at Fudge. If anything, a stupid figurehead would be BETTER, because it would give Quirrelmort more control. The only thing I can see being a barrier here is if Harry had some obvious, crippling mental condition. That sort of thing, though, WOULD have been obvious from a young age and as I've said, in that case he can tragically kill off Harry in such a way that Neville becomes the new posterboy. So again, whilst there is a risk here it is low, manageable and avoidable. I don't think it's enough to rule out this plan.
Your third argument. I've discussed the odds of success already, but I think the effort and time involved is an important point. You're absolutely right that Voldemort could have taken the whole country over several times by now - he was winning when he disappeared, after all. The difference, though, is that before Voldemort would have had control over a broken, wretched country and a whole generation of wizards who had no goal except vengeance. On the other hand, if he fakes his own death at the eleventh hour, lets the goodies think they've won and then takes them over from the inside eleven years later, he now has control over a strong, united country AND their opposition. He's unopposed because he controls both sides. I had only heard the term "super villain gambit" when I came up with this theory, but having read the article here on LW since I think you'll be able to see the utility in this ploy. I think it's worth ten extra years.
Finally, I should point out that I'm theorising he FAKED the Godric's Hollow scene. If this is what happened then Voldemort wouldn't have been hit by a rebounding curse that night and wouldn't have lost his body or his power. Harry's scar would have been intentionally created to mark him as the storybook hero everyone wanted and Harry would have been intentionally made a horcrux to in order to keep tabs on him. Also, in cannon horcruxes are close to indestructible: if this carries over in some form then it would be a good way to keep Harry safe.
To reiterate: I now doubt that this is what happened, because it looks like someone is trying to turn Harry evil.
Fudge isn't particularly stupid, he's just not particularly smart. He occupies a position of nominal power with significantly more competent people maneuvering around him, so he looks dim by comparison.
A not-very-bright figurehead would probably be better than a very clever one, but a legitimate dimwit, someone significantly less intelligent than average, not merely about average, would be very unlikely to make it into high office.
It's possible that Voldemort faked the Godric's hollow scene, but I seriously doubt it; real or fake it took too much time and resources for too little return for me to think it's likely.
According to the (admittedly non-canon) game The Force Unleashed, this is the original source of the Rebellion.
Something like this was done in the book ''Hair carpet" by German author Andreas Eschbach. Readworthy. I think it is generally wise to found the opposition by oneself. The government in 1984 did it as well.