GeeJo comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 14, chapter 82 - Less Wrong

7 Post author: FAWS 04 April 2012 02:53AM

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Comment author: Percent_Carbon 05 April 2012 08:07:33AM *  2 points [-]

More likely it was his intention that things sit like that.

He 'lost' on purpose. But before he did, he taught Dumbledore to lose in the hostage and ransom thing.

Step 1 : gather the fearful and lead them by fear

Voldemort championed the old blood that felt threatened by muggleborn and was very cruel to them to keep them in line.

Step 2 : force most powerful opponents into taking actions contrary to their ideology

Voldemort probably did any number of nasty things to break lower rank ideologists and might have done an evil thing or two that did not break Dumbledore, but eventually he was successful.

Step 2a : keep a lid on things so they cannot resolve themselves through reasonable application of voilence

Voldemort killed Narcissa once he knew Dumbledore was conditioned to accept the blame and the conflict extending truce that came after.

Step 3 : watch for an opportunity to exit the stage, take it

Voldemort faked his death when he found circumstances that could make a death event of sufficient believabilty for the masses.

Step 4 : hide out under assumed identities while enemies and former subordinates continue to not resolve things either peaceably or voilently for as long as necessary

Voldemort is Jeffe or Quirrell or any number of other people for ten years. He might also have been technically dead for some or all of that time. That does not significantly alter the scenario.

Step 5 : gather tools and staff as opportunities present themselves

Voldemort has the Resurrection Stone, Bella, and who knows what all else.

Step 6 : watch for an opportunity to stage a coup over either side of now old conflict, take it

Voldemort may have multiple scenarios for returning to power. Right now he is playing king maker for Boy Who Lived.

Step 7 : smash opposing side of nearly meaningless conflict because they have been conditioned to fight entirely the wrong kind of war, unite as many factions as possible

Step 8 : dominate world

Step 9 : throw tasteful party with select guests and absolutely, positively, never, ever monologue

Comment author: GeeJo 05 April 2012 08:40:18AM 11 points [-]

Considering that he was winning the war before making his untimely exit in the early 80s, this strategy seems overly complicated.

Comment author: Percent_Carbon 05 April 2012 09:53:16AM 2 points [-]

Father had told Draco that to fathom a strange plot, one technique was to look at what ended up happening, assume it was the intended result, and ask who benefited.

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 05 April 2012 12:08:12PM *  15 points [-]

You seem to be doing the opposite than what the quote indicates, trying to find ways in which Voldemort supposedly benefitted, in order to present him as the person behind every ploy.

If Voldemort benefitted from his supposed defeat at the night of Godric's Hollow, we've not yet seen how.
If Voldemort benefitted from the burning of Narcissa Malfoy, we've not yet seen how.

You are following the exact opposite process than the quote indicates. Which may be okay, after all it's only one technique, not the ONLY possible technique, but nonetheless quoting it as an explanation for your reasoning seems misguided.

Comment author: ChrisHallquist 05 April 2012 01:17:02PM 0 points [-]

Mostly agree with this comment, but it seems likely to me that HPMOR!Voldemort's intentions in going to Godric's Hollow were different than Canon!Voldemort's, given that HPMOR!Voldemort is a lot smarter than Canon!Voldemort.

I don't think similar reasoning applies to Narcissa's death, because it's less likely that Voldemort would have been able to foresee its effects.

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 05 April 2012 01:23:27PM 1 point [-]

Mostly agree with this comment, but it seems likely to me that HPMOR!Voldemort's intentions in going to Godric's Hollow were different than Canon!Voldemort's, given that HPMOR!Voldemort is a lot smarter than Canon!Voldemort.

I agree with this. For that, and also for other reasons, I assign less than 20% probability that Voldemort went to Godric's Hollow for a purpose as simple as "attempt to kill baby Harry".

Comment author: ChrisHallquist 05 April 2012 02:17:56PM -1 points [-]

Oh, but even Canon!Voldemort meant to make a Horcrux when he went to Godric's Hollow (or so speculated Dumbledore in book 6, IIRC). So I think there must have been more to it than even that.

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 05 April 2012 04:33:52PM 1 point [-]

Canon!Dumbledore speculated that Voldemort was going to kill Harry, and then create his last Horcrux using that death -- but killing Harry was his primary purpose for going there; the fact that Voldemort also meant to make the last Horcrux at the time was incidental.

If you need further clarification about what I believe, I don't think HPMoR!Voldemort purposed to kill Harry at all that night - atleast not physically.

Comment author: thomblake 09 April 2012 04:05:35PM 1 point [-]

quoting it as an explanation for your reasoning seems misguided.

This line seems to have caused some confusion downthread. On Percent_Carbon's view, t's a very good explanation for the reasoning, in that it seems to have generated understanding of the reasoning.

Perhaps equivocating on 'explanation'?

Comment author: Percent_Carbon 10 April 2012 05:41:47AM -1 points [-]

Well, I don't know about "very good." But it worked this time. I don't think that was a good way to do what I wanted done, though. So I'll probably not do that again.

Thanks for the defense, though.

Comment author: Alsadius 05 April 2012 05:39:23PM 6 points [-]

So Dumbledore was hiding behind a curtain, aced Voldemort, and carved a tasteful little scar into Harry's forehead? Because that seems to be the closest thing to a conclusion one can draw from that method as applied to Godric's Hollow.