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ChrisHallquist comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 14, chapter 82 - Less Wrong
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More likely it was his intention that things sit like that.
He 'lost' on purpose. But before he did, he taught Dumbledore to lose in the hostage and ransom thing.
Step 1 : gather the fearful and lead them by fear
Voldemort championed the old blood that felt threatened by muggleborn and was very cruel to them to keep them in line.
Step 2 : force most powerful opponents into taking actions contrary to their ideology
Voldemort probably did any number of nasty things to break lower rank ideologists and might have done an evil thing or two that did not break Dumbledore, but eventually he was successful.
Step 2a : keep a lid on things so they cannot resolve themselves through reasonable application of voilence
Voldemort killed Narcissa once he knew Dumbledore was conditioned to accept the blame and the conflict extending truce that came after.
Step 3 : watch for an opportunity to exit the stage, take it
Voldemort faked his death when he found circumstances that could make a death event of sufficient believabilty for the masses.
Step 4 : hide out under assumed identities while enemies and former subordinates continue to not resolve things either peaceably or voilently for as long as necessary
Voldemort is Jeffe or Quirrell or any number of other people for ten years. He might also have been technically dead for some or all of that time. That does not significantly alter the scenario.
Step 5 : gather tools and staff as opportunities present themselves
Voldemort has the Resurrection Stone, Bella, and who knows what all else.
Step 6 : watch for an opportunity to stage a coup over either side of now old conflict, take it
Voldemort may have multiple scenarios for returning to power. Right now he is playing king maker for Boy Who Lived.
Step 7 : smash opposing side of nearly meaningless conflict because they have been conditioned to fight entirely the wrong kind of war, unite as many factions as possible
Step 8 : dominate world
Step 9 : throw tasteful party with select guests and absolutely, positively, never, ever monologue
Downvoted for massive violation of Lucius' Law.
Please elaborate.
From Ch. 24:
Your plan is unworkable, because the probability that everything needed for the plan to happen would happen is too low. HPMOR!Voldemort is not a fool, so he would not have planned an unworkable plan (and, as Hat and Cloak, advised Blaise Zambini not to try such plans). Therefore this is not Voldemort's plan.
Fine. You accept that Voldemort did rise to power, yes? Let that be one plot that had however many "different things to happen" but worked. That is one plot with one payout that is collected without being dependent on other plots and covers step 1.
In step 2 his plot depends on his most idealistic enemies breaking from their ideals. That is 1 "different things to happen". He maybe tries a lot of different time, and eventually the Aberforth Event occurs, so the plot progresses.
Step 2a is the same plot and includes another "different thing." After he kills Narcissa, his formerly idealistic enemies must claim responsibility. He has conditioned them to do this in the way he has spread terror and treated them, so it does not come out of the blue, but it is the second "different thing" for that plot.
It works and he is rewarded with a conflict without escalation, where he can continue to amass power while his own side does not get out of control and his enemies become more reasonable and less idealistic, therefore easier to manipulate and less unpredictable. This second plot covers steps 2 and 2a. He could continue at this point as he had, building power for a faction, taking different steps or starting different plots.
The third plot has the goal of unity and only depends on two "different things." The first is that he have an opportunity to step out of the game, the second is that he has an opportunity to step back in. Again, there is the throwing shit at the wall approach, here. He can set up situation after situation that might lead to an opportunity to step out or in, and take the ones that he expects to work best.
When this plot is completed, he is rewarded with control of a new third side in a two sided war. He can do what he wants with this new faction, execute any number of plots from this point forward. This covers steps 3, 4, & 5.
The fourth plot is what he is preparing for, but isn't executing as far as I can tell, taking over the government. Whatever this depends on, you know he's up to something and this is no worse an answer than many other reasonable answers.
I'm fairly certain that Voldemort is not planning a party, though. That was a joke.
Well, yes, if it was planned from the beginning. It could have been improvised. To summarize Percent_Carbon in a way that brings out the potential that the plan he explained was improvised... Step 1. Conquer Britain as Voldemort. Doesn't work as well as hoped, Britain is divided, not united. Step 2. Use power to try to set up a situation that you think you can exploit later. Wait years before you see a good way to exploit it Step 3. See the way Harry Potter came out, see an opportunity to conquer a united Britain, and go for it