Desrtopa comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 14, chapter 82 - Less Wrong
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Quirrel himself noted that plans that contingent on uncontrollable events tend to fail. Dumbledore wasn't counting on that plan working, as he said, "That's why it's important to have more than one plot going at once." The plan that resulted in the three way tie succeeded largely due to luck.