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Desrtopa comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 14, chapter 82 - Less Wrong
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Quirrell frequently brags about things he shouldn't mention, things with massive blowback potential. He also obvious relishes outsmarting and dominating others.
I'm not just disagreeing for argument's sake. Look at the plot that resulted in the three-way tie in the underwater Defense battle. Clearly the universe of this fic allows absurdly complex plots to work when the plotters are of a high enough level.
Quirrel himself noted that plans that contingent on uncontrollable events tend to fail. Dumbledore wasn't counting on that plan working, as he said, "That's why it's important to have more than one plot going at once." The plan that resulted in the three way tie succeeded largely due to luck.