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ChrisHallquist comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 14, chapter 82 - Less Wrong
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But even after Narcissa died, I don't think Voldemort was facing a Total War against a united Magical Britain. It was the Death Eaters vs. the Order of the Phoenix, and what evidence we has indicates that the Order was losing, even when led by a more ruthless Dumbledore.
That's what's so puzzling here. This version of Voldemort isn't stupid, but it still looks like he screwed up.
It's possible he was simply too intelligent - trying to lose without appearing to try to lose, but still too brilliant to be defeated.