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thomblake comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 14, chapter 82 - Less Wrong
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Trivially true only if you're not counting the chance of the real death being erroneously discovered to be a fake.
But that can happen if it's actually fake too - getting the right answer from the wrong argument is hardly unprecedented. In any case, the odds of it being believed to be fake(with the consequent effects on Dumbledore's reputation as someone who is willing to go to great lengths to protect the Order's families) go up if it's actually fake.