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ArisKatsaris comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 14, chapter 82 - Less Wrong
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I didn't downvote you, and I also consider it most likely that Amelia Bones killed Narcissa Malfoy.
But I'm not sure these suffice to call it obvious, if obvious means something like >95%. I'd assign it something like a 70-75% likelihood.