Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 14, chapter 82 - Less Wrong

7 Post author: FAWS 04 April 2012 02:53AM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 11 April 2012 06:06:47AM 6 points [-]

Why are people downvoting this? It's a testable prediction.

Comment author: Alsadius 12 April 2012 10:28:53PM *  10 points [-]

There's reasons besides unfalsifiability for downvoting. Like poor logic, or asserting p=1, or writing so melodramatically that my eyes glazed over.

Edit: I stand by my downvote, for the last two reasons, but I'll give him props for a correct prediction.

Comment author: 75th 12 April 2012 05:08:18AM *  9 points [-]

Thanks for having my back, but I have to ask if I've missed the boat on some Less Wrong policies or unspoken understandings somewhere. What I said may have been a testable prediction, but I wasn't aware that people's posts had to be testable predictions to deserve upvotes. Am I required to list all my supporting evidence every time I make a future-looking statement? If I don't, or even if I do, must I disclaim them the way corporations do on quarterly earnings conference calls?

gwern said above that (s)he'd "be happy to record" my prediction. I had no idea my predictions were being recorded at all. I thought this was just a discussion forum. Is Less Wrong actually a simulation of the prediction markets from Three Worlds Collide? Is Less Wrong a subsidiary of Intrade? Do I have cash or prizes waiting for me somewhere thanks to one of my earlier correct predictions?

Comment author: thomblake 12 April 2012 11:15:47PM *  5 points [-]

but I wasn't aware that people's posts had to be testable predictions to deserve upvotes

No, it's severally sufficient, not necessary - testable predictions deserve upvotes.

gwern said above that (s)he'd "be happy to record" my prediction. I had no idea my predictions were being recorded at all.

Predictions about MoR are commonly recorded on PredictionBook, which sadly does not offer prizes but can tell you how good your past predictions were so you can get better.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 12 April 2012 06:59:50AM 6 points [-]

If so, I missed the same boat. I looked at the downvotes and was like 'Wha?'

Comment author: Spencer_Sleep 11 April 2012 06:17:55AM 8 points [-]

I can also make the testable prediction "The universe will cease to exist on May 19th, 2034 at 10:03:09PM", but unless I had some truly excellent supporting evidence which I posted along with that prediction, I would not expect people to think well of my statement (particularly if I made it in a rambling, melodramatic way that made it difficult to determine the purpose of the post).

Comment author: 75th 11 April 2012 04:14:57PM 9 points [-]

I thought it was pretty obvious that it was a direct response to the information and imagery in the chapter posted last night.

Yes, it was rambling and melodramatic and over-the-top; it was supposed to be amusing, while at the same time accurately expressing my belief that some seriously dark shit is coming.

Sorry for offending everyone.

Comment author: Percent_Carbon 12 April 2012 06:56:16AM 0 points [-]

Sorry for offending everyone.

I think that anyone you offended is probably not worth apologizing to. Downvote should not only be for offensive content.

Or were you just being melodramatic again?

Comment author: 75th 12 April 2012 05:38:52PM 4 points [-]

See my reply below; by "offending" I meant that people seemed to be downvoting me for breaking a rule, rather than just posting a crappy comment.