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NancyLebovitz comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 14, chapter 82 - Less Wrong
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I have twice already pointed out that possibility.
It would be good information, yes. As far as I can tell, there may be some very recent records of recommendations by the Nebula members (and also claims of considerable politicking, so an appeal by Eliezer to fans would be far from unprecedented nor especially effective).
The Hugo voting system is pretty complicated, but apparently they've released detailed statistics since the 1980s - one of the first quotes in that 1997 analysis is
The most recent data is for 2011. Best Novel took 1813 ballots, with 779 vs 753 for #1 vs #2 (as I said, complicated - it's IRV).
The fan categories are fanzine, fan artist, and fan writer; the last had 323 ballots, with 70 vs 40. So in other words, just to get within spitting distance of Best Novel #2, you would need almost twice as many ballots as were cast for the entire category of Best Fan Writer.
You see why I would give MoR for Best Novel 0-5%, and EY for Best Fan Writer 50+%?
I can't find your mentions that the Best Novel Hugo might be worth more than the Best Fan Writer. This doesn't mean I think you're lying or mistaken, but where are they? Were they in some other thread or sub-thread?
I'm not sure if my point that just getting nominated for Best Novel is a huge win in terms of readership has registered. For these purposes, there is no difference I can see between coming in second and coming in last.
I agree that HPMOR doesn't have a great chance of winning Best Novel. It depends tremendously on what the competition is, and I'm assuming we're talking about at least two years from now, so what novels it would be up against are hard to predict. I don't think there are any predictable blockbusters in the immediate pipeline.
Subthread.
As I suggested, it may be a good idea - but Eliezer did not present that as a reason, has not presented it as a reason, and has not justified it. What makes you think the nomination is better than winning a fan Hugo, besides anecdotes about peoples' reading lists including nominees?
I'm assuming that the purpose of going for a Hugo is to get publicity and increased readership for HPMOR. If I'm mistaken-- possibly the point is that having a Hugo award is Really Cool-- then going for the win in a less important category would make sense.
I've been in fandom since the early seventies, and it seems to me that people talk about the Best Novel a lot more than Best Fan Writer.
I may be biased, but I think Fan Writing is very much a sub-culture within the sub-culture.
To be fair, even print sf is minuscule compared to tv, movies, and comics. From yet another angle, fanfic has become a huge thing by fannish standards, but I think it's something of a separate branch compared to the sort of fan writing (typically essays, I think, rather than fiction) which gets a Hugo.
I suspect the real logic is: having a Hugo award is Really Cool, having a Hugo for best novel is Even More Really Cool, and Eliezer isn't the type of person to settle for Really Cool in that situation.