Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 14, chapter 82 - Less Wrong

7 Post author: FAWS 04 April 2012 02:53AM

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Tags: fiction hpmor harry_potter fanfiction

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Comment author: [deleted] 03 June 2012 01:32:24AM *  5 points [-]

Can anybody get in on this bet? I would take it as well.

I think the odds of HPMOR winning the Hugo (edited to say: for Best Novel) are far less than one percent. This has nothing to do with my estimation of the literary merits of the fic, and everything to do with my understanding of the literary establishment and its unwillingness to tangle with copyright law.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 03 June 2012 10:01:29AM 2 points [-]

I have looked up the rules and apparently, instead of a plurality vote or a majority vote with runoff voting, people rank all the candidates and can put "No Award" above anything they think sufficiently underserving. This does change my odds, but not enough that I wouldn't try to for a nomination. I'm also not sure that it should change my odds enough not to bet at 20-to-1. How much would you want in for?

Comment author: gwern 03 June 2012 04:51:41PM 10 points [-]

can put "No Award" above anything they think sufficiently underserving.

Cute story I saw 12 days ago on urth.net:

I read an interview with Roger Zelazny, and he said that the reason he called the story "No Award" was because he noticed that, since the ballots were alphabetical by author, he always wound up right before No Award. He wanted to have two "No Award"s in a row and cause confusion. Unfortunately for his dastardly plot ( :) ), it didn't get nominated for anything.

Comment author: [deleted] 03 June 2012 05:02:15PM 4 points [-]

$500 against $25?

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