othercriteria comments on AI Risk & Opportunity: Strategic Analysis Via Probability Tree - Less Wrong
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I'm not well-versed in these probability trees but something weird seems to be happening in the third one. The conditional probabilities under "private push" and those under no "private push" should each separately sum to 1. Changing them to joint probabilities would resolve the problem. Alternatively, you could put a probability on "private push" and then put FAI, uFAI, and Other on each branch.
Oops, fixed.