othercriteria comments on AI Risk & Opportunity: Strategic Analysis Via Probability Tree - Less Wrong

11 Post author: lukeprog 07 April 2012 08:25AM

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Comment author: othercriteria 07 April 2012 12:15:41PM 5 points [-]

I'm not well-versed in these probability trees but something weird seems to be happening in the third one. The conditional probabilities under "private push" and those under no "private push" should each separately sum to 1. Changing them to joint probabilities would resolve the problem. Alternatively, you could put a probability on "private push" and then put FAI, uFAI, and Other on each branch.

Comment author: lukeprog 08 April 2012 02:07:52AM 2 points [-]

Oops, fixed.