I think we're talking about subtly different things here. You're talking about explanations of external events, I'm talking about explanations for your own mind states, ie why am I sad right now.

I'm pointing out that there is actually no difference between the two. Your "explainer" (I call it the Speculator, myself), just makes stuff up with no concern for the truth. All it cares about are plausibility and good self-image reflection.

I don't see the Speculator as entirely unconscious, though. In fact, most of us tend to identify with the Speculator, and view its thoughts as our own. Or I suppose, you might say that the Speculator is an tool that we can choose to think with... and we tend to reach for it by default.

I don't like blaming the "unconscious" or even using the word - it sounds too Freudian - but there aren't any other good terms that mean the same thing.

Sometimes I refer to the other-than-conscious, or to non-conscious processes. But finer distinctions are useful at times, so I also refer to the Savant (non-verbal, sensory-oriented, single-stepping, abstraction/negation-free) and the Speculator (verbal, projecting, abstracting, etc.)

I suppose it's open to question whether the Speculator is really "other-than-conscious", in that it sounds like a conscious entity, and we consciously tend to identify with it, in the absence of e.g. meditative or contemplative training.