Nornagest comments on Living Forever is Hard, part 3: the state of life extension research - Less Wrong

11 Post author: gwern 23 April 2012 06:17PM

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Comment author: Nornagest 24 April 2012 10:16:21PM 0 points [-]

Looks to me like the peak of the bell curve falls at about +10%. That's in the same ballpark as what I'd expect from placebo, but nonetheless a little higher; if we're instead looking at a lot of low-impact interventions, the really interesting question is how parallelizable they are. Unfortunately, if the natural variance in lifespan is anything to go by I suspect the answer is "not very".

There's also that really sharp spike at 0%, but I can think we can probably put some of that down to psychology.

Comment author: gwern 24 April 2012 10:44:50PM 1 point [-]

That's in the same ballpark as what I'd expect from placebo, but nonetheless a little higher

Or stuff like publication bias (one reason I was interested in whether a funnel plot could be formed from the data).