Nornagest comments on Living Forever is Hard, part 3: the state of life extension research - Less Wrong

11 Post author: gwern 23 April 2012 06:17PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (17)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: gwern 24 April 2012 09:42:35PM 5 points [-]

Is it strange and unexpected that attempted life-extending drugs shorten lifespans as often as they increase them?

The activities of people like Ray Kurzweil, who take literally hundreds of supplements, suggest that this is strange and unexpected, and cannot be deprecated enough. It also particularly cautions us against caring about any supplement or drug without dozens of positive studies (at a minimum).

Or is it disturbing that the drugs are very likely to simply do nothing at all?

That's also disturbing. It suggests - pace Algernon's law - that there is no good simple intervention.

The fact that this is a pretty smooth bellcurve also indicates, as far as I can tell, the general field has found no intervention at all that works - because then there would be dozens or hundreds of studies tweaking it and replicating it and investigating why it works. We don't see a bimodal hump with most interventions at net 0%, and a second bell curve of caloric restriction/intermittent fasting centered at eg. +40%.

(This latter interpretation could be wrong, since the data is so heterogenous. It could be that the apparent excess of studies around +100% represent many of the CR/IF studies.)

Comment author: Nornagest 24 April 2012 10:16:21PM 0 points [-]

Looks to me like the peak of the bell curve falls at about +10%. That's in the same ballpark as what I'd expect from placebo, but nonetheless a little higher; if we're instead looking at a lot of low-impact interventions, the really interesting question is how parallelizable they are. Unfortunately, if the natural variance in lifespan is anything to go by I suspect the answer is "not very".

There's also that really sharp spike at 0%, but I can think we can probably put some of that down to psychology.

Comment author: gwern 24 April 2012 10:44:50PM 1 point [-]

That's in the same ballpark as what I'd expect from placebo, but nonetheless a little higher

Or stuff like publication bias (one reason I was interested in whether a funnel plot could be formed from the data).