gwern comments on Living Forever is Hard, part 3: the state of life extension research - Less Wrong
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"Interventions Tend To Combine Synergistically To Extend Life Span A Little, But The Typical Improvement Is Statistically Insignificant"; another production from Kingsley's ginormous spreadsheet. Abstract:
My comments on GRG:
"If I'm understanding this right, you're treating this as basically a vote-counting model: a single study yields a single data point of a single/multiple binary variable & a average lifespan increase % (experimental minus control).
This seems like it could be masking a huge amount of variables and relevant info. For example, do multiple intervention studies administer the same net amount of substances as the single intervention studies? If a multiple intervention studies administers 10mg of 10 substances and a single intervention administers 100mg of 1 substance, and there are increasing returns like a U-curve, then the combined additive or multiplicative effect of the multiple-interventions could equal the single intervention. Or could there be a bias in subject selection? It's probably easier to get big humans to eat multiple substances than a tiny hydra or yeast cell, and human studies don't seem to work well in general regardless of multiple vs single, so that could produce a lack of effectiveness (the multiples look ineffective, because they tend to be done in humans; and the single look effective, because smaller simpler animals will tend more to receive singles). You can probably think of a few other plausible covariates."