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gwern comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality predictions - Less Wrong
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Comments (36)
'Take over'? Are they eating your predictions? Do you wake up and find your predictions have been infected with comments about MoR? Did you have a quota I didn't know about and these MoR predictions are filling up your hard drive? Hardly anyone of them have a due date in the next year, so you can't be complaining about their judgment or controversies, so what are you complaining about?
This isn't a complaint, it's feedback.
Specifically, for instance, what's happening when I view the "Happenstance" or "Recent predictions" lists is that I have to scroll, sometimes over a screen's worth, to get past a big chunk of predictions which I can tell are of no interest to me. This is demotivating (even though I have read HPMoR), a trivial inconvenience.
To me (and I can perfectly understand not everyone feels that way) the HPMoR predictions are noise, as are the private predictions such as "I will complete 100 push-ups by next month". I have no interest in refining my map of a fictional universe, or my map of a total stranger's motivational structure or muscular strength.
The appeal to me of PredictionBook isn't as a repository of predictions which are private to one person or that have a very narrow appeal. I can totally understand if someone else chooses to use it that way - though it's worth noting that its UI is not consistent with that usage.
What I'm expecting from PredictionBook is a diverse stream of somewhat challenging predictions which motivate me to take the risk of being wrong. What other PredictionBook users get in return is my occasionally contributing a prediction that makes the site more interesting, if by some epsilon value, for everyone else.
I'm not paying anything, so I don't have a right to complain about the service - I'm also free to quietly stop using it. I just thought it would be of some value to other users to give, as it were, an exit interview.
Nonsense. You have a right to complain about anything. And some optimal prices are negative; there's nothing magical about a service you pay $0 to use (not counting the time you spend using it!) as compared to $0.01 or -$0.01.
No, he's right to complain. We really do need a tagging system so we can filter out the kinds of prediction statements we don't want to see. For instance, I resolved not to read anymore HPMoR (I stopped at about chapter 65) until I complete certain others goals (of which, I use PredictionBook to help with motivation), but it is very difficult for me to avoid spoilers with the site's current setup. I'm sure others have similar problems.