Morendil comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality predictions - Less Wrong

6 Post author: gwern 09 April 2012 09:49PM

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Comment author: Morendil 10 April 2012 03:07:24PM 16 points [-]

This isn't a complaint, it's feedback.

Specifically, for instance, what's happening when I view the "Happenstance" or "Recent predictions" lists is that I have to scroll, sometimes over a screen's worth, to get past a big chunk of predictions which I can tell are of no interest to me. This is demotivating (even though I have read HPMoR), a trivial inconvenience.

To me (and I can perfectly understand not everyone feels that way) the HPMoR predictions are noise, as are the private predictions such as "I will complete 100 push-ups by next month". I have no interest in refining my map of a fictional universe, or my map of a total stranger's motivational structure or muscular strength.

The appeal to me of PredictionBook isn't as a repository of predictions which are private to one person or that have a very narrow appeal. I can totally understand if someone else chooses to use it that way - though it's worth noting that its UI is not consistent with that usage.

What I'm expecting from PredictionBook is a diverse stream of somewhat challenging predictions which motivate me to take the risk of being wrong. What other PredictionBook users get in return is my occasionally contributing a prediction that makes the site more interesting, if by some epsilon value, for everyone else.

I'm not paying anything, so I don't have a right to complain about the service - I'm also free to quietly stop using it. I just thought it would be of some value to other users to give, as it were, an exit interview.

Comment author: thomblake 10 April 2012 07:43:20PM 8 points [-]

I'm not paying anything, so I don't have a right to complain about the service

Nonsense. You have a right to complain about anything. And some optimal prices are negative; there's nothing magical about a service you pay $0 to use (not counting the time you spend using it!) as compared to $0.01 or -$0.01.