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ShardPhoenix comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality predictions - Less Wrong
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Hmm. Gwern, looking over a few of these, I feel like your percentages given are consistently too high. Then again, I guess we'll see how it works out in the end.
You're probably right. I have good handles on real-world outcomes, but for fiction there's so many freedoms that I think I anchor on initial suggestions too much.