Like most people who believe in widespread market failures you've stopped your analysis too early. So Alex automates Bill's job away and pockets most of the savings, leaving Bill unemployed and some large number of Chrises slightly better off. What happens next?
Well, obviously Bill looks for work, and Alex's competitor Dave decides he needs to automate too. A year later Bill is working some other (possibly less desireable) job, and Alex and Dave are locked in a price war that gradually transfers most of the savings from automation to their customers. So as long as the automation process is gradual there's no particular need for intervention.
This is not a market failure, the situation is Pareto optimal. It's just that capitalists get richer and laborers get poorer.
Mechanical Engineering magazine (paywalled until next month) and Financial Times, among others, recently reviewed the book Race Against the Machine by economists Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee. The FT reviewer writes:
And ME magazine quotes McAfee in an interview:
Both reviewers also hint that McAfee and Brynjolfsson offer a partial explanation of the "jobless recovery", but either the book's argument is weak or the reviewers do a poor job summarizing it. Such a purported explanation might be the main attraction for most readers, but I'm more interested in the longer-term picture. Be it the "nightmarish vision" of the future mentioned in FT, or the simpler point about wages offered by McAfee, this might be a good hook to get the general public thinking about the long-term consequences of AI.
Is that a good idea? Should sleeping general publics be left to lie? There seems to be significant reluctance among many LessWrongers to stir the public, but have we ever hashed out the reasons for and against? Please describe any non-obvious reasons on either side.