see comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 15, chapter 84 - Less Wrong
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Comments (1221)
Fantastic.
I dismiss the bait and switch because the passage does not seem to lay down that tease; p<0.01. It starts right out with a date that we now know is meant to assure us this is not Riddle. If EY originally intended the bait and switch, then regretted it, p>0.8 he would clean out other things that only exist to support his ill conceived tease. There isn't a WHAM paragraph with few words surrounded by white space. It's just not built like a bait and switch shocker.
While reading, I thought that Scion of X did fight Riddle and did as Hermione suggested:
And after Voldemort killed him he kept the identity close because things like that can be useful. But I know that I am gullible and literal (p>0.2 that I under value literal interpretations after an alternative is available), so I dismissed that as soon as I thought up an explanation that worked on a more in character plot. p<0.01
I dismiss the unknown, unrelated, unremarked third party because of Conservation of Detail. p<0.01
I don't have any other speculation worth mentioning, so "something else" gets p<0.25.
If 1970-1973 was a con by Voldemort, why was it given up in 1973? Surely he expected it to take longer than a couple of years to begin with, didn't he?
I don't know how long he thought it would take, but it sounds like he had no idea how hard it would suck.