I think that outside view estimates- "here's Moore's Law, this is the point at which the processing power of a human brain will cost the equivalent of $1,000 in 2012 dollars"- are way more robust than inside view estimates- "we just came up with subtechnology 734 out of ~5k necessary."
it seems much more important than tech 734/5000 necessary... carbon nanotubes are one of the core scientific discoveries of our generation and this shows a really interesting property of them directly related to electronics development. The heat dissapation bottleneck has been the most serious issue with nanotech and much, much faster and smaller processors. When we went from faster chips to multiple cores, things became really different - parallel algorithms are inherently more difficult and tech that could reinstate an exponentiation phase is extremely ...
Carbon nanotubes: The weird world of 'remote Joule heating'
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