Pretty ordinary meaning: Bunch of people trusting extraordinary claims not backed with any evidence or expert consensus, originating from a charismatic leader who is earning living off cultists. Subtype doomsday. Now, I don't give any plus or minus points for the leader and living off cultists part, but the general lack of expert concern of the issue is a killer. Experts being people with expertise on relevant subject (but no doomsday experts allowed; has to be something practically useful or at least not all about the doomsday itself. Else you start counting theologians as experts). E.g. for AI risk, the relevant experts may be people with CS accomplishments, the folks who made self driving car, the visual object recognition experts, speech recognition, who developed actual working AI of some kind, etc etc.
I wonder what'd happen if we'd train a SPR for cult recognition. http://lesswrong.com/lw/3gv/statistical_prediction_rules_outperform_expert/ SPRs don't care for any unusual redeeming qualities or special circumstances.
Can you list some non-cult most similar to LW/SIAI ?
extraordinary claims not backed with any evidence
There are two claims the conjunction of which must be true in order for a doomsday scenario to be likely:
I am unsure of 2 but believe 1. Do you disagree with 1?
Why does SI/LW focus so much on AI-FOOM disaster, with apparently much less concern for things like
Why, for example, is lukeprog's strategy sequence titled "AI Risk and Opportunity", instead of "The Singularity, Risks and Opportunities"? Doesn't it seem strange to assume that both the risks and opportunities must be AI related, before the analysis even begins? Given our current state of knowledge, I don't see how we can make such conclusions with any confidence even after a thorough analysis.
SI/LW sometimes gives the impression of being a doomsday cult, and it would help if we didn't concentrate so much on a particular doomsday scenario. (Are there any doomsday cults that say "doom is probably coming, we're not sure how but here are some likely possibilities"?)