gwern comments on Our Phyg Is Not Exclusive Enough - Less Wrong
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'Pretty sure', eh? Would you care to take a bet on this?
I'd be happy to go with a few sorts of bets, ranging from "an organization that used to be SIAI or CFAR is put on the 'Individuals and Entities Designated by the State Department Under E.O. 13224' or 'US Department of State Terrorist Designation Lists' within 30 years" to ">=2 people previously employed by SIAI or CFAR will be charged with conspiracy, premeditated murder, or attempted murder within 30 years" etc. I'd be happy to risk, on my part, amounts up to ~$1000, depending on what odds you give.
If you're worried about counterparty risk, we can probably do this on LongBets (although since they require the money upfront I'd have to reduce my bet substantially).