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jimrandomh comments on Just for fun - let's play a game. - Less Wrong
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Only piece of information we're missing is how many people started in the tournament which would allow us to find out how many points he would need to get top8.
You sound like you know what a Magic tournament is about way more than I do (don't know what counts as a draw, or if there even is such a thing) and have revised my estimates accordingly.
(1) .1 (2) .35 (3) .35 (4).18 (5).02
5 is low due to pjeby's comment, the .02 is my probability that he would slash my tires or is wrong.
We don't know how many people were in the tournament, but we do have a very good proxy: the number of rounds in the Swiss portion. Swiss tournaments are supposed to have between log2(P) and log2(P)+1 rounds, where P is the number of players, so the tournament had between 64 and 128 players.