I think it's (2). To win a 7/SS+top 8 tournament, you would definitely need at least 4 and probably 5 wins in the main tournament, plus three wins in elimination. The rules of the Swiss system don't allow any player to receive more than one bye, so you would need to have had 4 wins, 1 bye, and at least 2 but probably 3 forfeits. Online tournaments may be different, but of all the Swiss tournaments I've played in, I have only ever seen one forfeit, so the same player getting multiple forfeits is highly unlikely.