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Morendil comments on Interesting rationalist exercise about French election - Less Wrong

8 Post author: kilobug 16 April 2012 03:34PM

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Tags: anticipation exercise

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Comment author: Morendil 16 April 2012 04:24:03PM 5 points [-]

what do you think the majority of our readers answered

See Bayesian Truth Serum. I'm eager to one day discover a bona fide implementation of BTS as a Web app. This isn't quite it, because BTS requires that respondents are actually encouraged to get a "high score", and scoring isn't only based on accurately guessing the popular answer.

Comment author: John_Maxwell_IV 16 April 2012 11:41:39PM 1 point [-]

Can we come up with a good measure of rationality along these lines?

Comment author: Morendil 17 April 2012 01:07:39PM 0 points [-]

Calibration for starters.

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