MrHen comments on The True Epistemic Prisoner's Dilemma - Less Wrong
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It seems like it would be wiser to forgo the arguments for evolution and spend your time talking about cooperating.
By the way, while we are adding direct emotional weight to this example, the real villain here is Omega. In all honesty, the Young Earth Creationist cannot be blamed for sending untold numbers to their death because of a bad belief. The bad belief has nothing to do with the asteroid and any moral link between the two should be placed on Omega.
Anything that has the ability to save untold billions and will only do so if two particular individuals figure out how old the earth is evil. Or, at the very least, does not have the best interests of humanity in mind.
To belabor the point, if Omega held his hands behind his back and asked you and me to guess at whether the number of fingers he is holding up is odd or even and, if and only if we were correct, he would save lives it would be the OP's example with certainty dropped to 0. Would we be held to blame if we failed? Increasing our certainty does not increase our moral responsibility.
(Note) I think the formatting in your post may be off. The third quote looks like it may have too much included.
Since I'd say that evil is just having goals which are fundamentally incompatible with mine (or whoever is considering this), I don't think there's necessarily a difference between those two statements.