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Lightwave comments on The True Epistemic Prisoner's Dilemma - Less Wrong
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Given the stakes, it seems to me the most rational thing to do here is to try to convince the other person that you should both cooperate, and then defect.
The difference between this dilemma and Newcomb is that Newcomb's Omega predicts perfectly which box you'll take, whereas the Creationist cannot predict whether you'll defect or not.
The only way you can lose is if you screw up so badly at trying to convincing him to cooperate (i.e. you're a terrible liar or bad at communicating in general and confuse him), that instead he's convinced he should defect now. So the biggest factor when deciding whether to cooperate or defect should be your ability to convince.
If you don't think you could convince him to cooperate then you still defect because he will, and if you cooperate 0 people are saved. Cooperating generates either 0 or 2 billion saved, defecting generates either 1 or 3 billion saved. Defect is clearly the better option.
If you were going to play 100 rounds for 10 or 20 million lives each, cooperate by all means. But in a single round PD defect is the winning choice (assuming the payout is all that matters to you; if your utility function cares about the other persons feelings towards you after the choice, cooperate can become the highest utility)