Nick_Tarleton comments on The True Epistemic Prisoner's Dilemma - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (70)
I think that the fact that he doesn't let his abstract belief cause him to drink poison, when everyone around him with the same abstract belief obviously doesn't drink poison, when common sense (poison is bad for you) opposes the abstract belief, and when the relevant abstract belief probably occupies very little space in his mind* is of little relevance to whether he will let an abstract belief that is highly salient and part of his identity make him act in a way that isn't nonconforming and doesn't conflict with common sense.
*If any; plenty of polls show Christians to be shockingly ignorant of the Bible, something many atheists seem to be unaware of.
No doubt he would, which is why I would try to persuade him, but he is not capable of discerning what action I'll take (modulo imperfect deception on my part, but again I seriously doubt I could do better by internally committing), nor is his decision process correlated with mine.
I would rather persuade him to cooperate but not to be superrational (allowing the outcome to be D/C) than persuade him to be superrational (forcing C/C), and I doubt the latter would be easier.
(Caveat: I'm not entirely sure about the case where the creationist is not superrational, but knows me very well.)
The creationist does not have to contradict his belief about the age of the earth to cooperate. He only needs to recognize that the way to get the best result given his belief is to exchange cooperation for cooperation, using common sense (saving 2 billion people given that the earth is young is better than saving 1 billion people given that the earth is young). Yes, understanding the prisoner's dilemma is harder than understanding poison is bad, but it is still a case where common sense should overcome a small bias, if there is one at all. You might have some work to convince the creationist that his choice does not need to reflect his belief, just as your choice to cooperate would not indicate that you actually believe the earth is young.
Why is he going to cooperate unless you offer to cooperate in return? Unless you actually convinced him to reject young earth creationism, he would see that as saving 0 people instead of 1 billion. Or do you intend to trick him into believing that you would cooperate? I don't think I could do that; I would have to be honest to be convincing.