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jimmy comments on The True Epistemic Prisoner's Dilemma - Less Wrong
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I will point out to the defectors that the scenario described is no more plausible than creationism (after all it involves a deity behaving even more capriciously than the creationist one). If we postulate that your fictional self is believing in the scenario, surely your fictional self should no longer be quite so certain of the falsehood of creationism?
This doesn't sound like the most inconvenient world to me. Not all unlikely things are correlated, so choose a world where they're not.