How can we get more and better LW contrarians?

Wei Dai

I'm worried that LW doesn't have enough good contrarians and skeptics, people who disagree with us or like to find fault in every idea they see, but do so in a way that is often right and can change our minds when they are. I fear that when contrarians/skeptics join us but aren't "good enough", we tend to drive them away instead of improving them.

For example, I know a couple of people who occasionally had interesting ideas that were contrary to the local LW consensus, but were (or appeared to be) too confident in their ideas, both good and bad. Both people ended up being repeatedly downvoted and left our community a few months after they arrived. This must have happened more often than I have noticed (partly evidenced by the large number of comments/posts now marked as written by [deleted], sometimes with whole threads written entirely by deleted accounts). I feel that this is a waste that we should try to prevent (or at least think about how we might). So here are some ideas:

Try to "fix" them by telling them that they are overconfident and give them hints about how to get LW to take their ideas seriously. Unfortunately, from their perspective such advice must appear to come from someone who is themselves overconfident and wrong, so they're not likely to be very inclined to accept the advice.
Create a separate section with different social norms, where people are not expected to maintain the "proper" level of confidence and niceness (on pain of being downvoted), and direct overconfident newcomers to it. Perhaps through no-holds-barred debate we can convince them that we're not as crazy and wrong as they thought, and then give them the above-mentioned advice and move them to the main sections.
Give newcomers some sort of honeymoon period (marked by color-coding of their usernames or something like that), where we ignore their overconfidence and associated social transgressions (or just be extra nice and tolerant towards them), and take their ideas on their own merits. Maybe if they see us take their ideas seriously, that will cause them to reciprocate and take us more seriously when we point out that they may be wrong or overconfident.

I guess these ideas sounded better in my head than written down, but maybe they'll inspire other people to think of better ones. And it might help a bit just to keep this issue in the back of one's mind and occasionally think strategically about how to improve the person you're arguing against, instead of only trying to win the particular argument at hand or downvoting them into leaving.

P.S., after writing most of the above, I saw this post:

OTOH, I don’t think group think is a big problem. Criticism by folks like Will Newsome, Vladimir Slepnev and especially Wei Dai is often upvoted. (I upvote almost every comment of Dai or Newsome if I don’t forget it. Dai makes always very good points and Newsome is often wrong but also hilariously funny or just brilliant and right.) Of course, folks like this Dymytry guy are often downvoted, but IMO with good reason.

To be clear, I don't think "group think" is the problem. In other words, it's not that we're refusing to accept valid criticisms, but more like our group dynamics (and other factors) cause there to be fewer good contrarians in our community than is optimal. Of course what is optimal might be open to debate, but from my perspective, it can't be right that my own criticisms are valued so highly (especially since I've been moving closer to the SingInst "inner circle" and my critical tendencies have been decreasing). In the spirit of making oneself redundant, I'd feel much better if my occasional voice of dissent is just considered one amongst many.

Try to "fix" them by telling them that they are overconfident and give them hints about how to get LW to take their ideas seriously. Unfortunately, from their perspective such advice must appear to come from someone who is themselves overconfident and wrong, so they're not likely to be very inclined to accept the advice.
Create a separate section with different social norms, where people are not expected to maintain the "proper" level of confidence and niceness (on pain of being downvoted), and direct overconfident newcomers to it. Perhaps through no-holds-barred debate we can convince them that we're not as crazy and wrong as they thought, and then give them the above-mentioned advice and move them to the main sections.
Give newcomers some sort of honeymoon period (marked by color-coding of their usernames or something like that), where we ignore their overconfidence and associated social transgressions (or just be extra nice and tolerant towards them), and take their ideas on their own merits. Maybe if they see us take their ideas seriously, that will cause them to reciprocate and take us more seriously when we point out that they may be wrong or overconfident.

P.S., after writing most of the above, I saw this post:

OTOH, I don’t think group think is a big problem. Criticism by folks like Will Newsome, Vladimir Slepnev and especially Wei Dai is often upvoted. (I upvote almost every comment of Dai or Newsome if I don’t forget it. Dai makes always very good points and Newsome is often wrong but also hilariously funny or just brilliant and right.) Of course, folks like this Dymytry guy are often downvoted, but IMO with good reason.

Though I suppose I should have told Multiheaded that Wells' political stuff is bad and that his High Weirdness stuff is way better.

Nah, don't worry. I understood from the start that politically that blog is something like the rants of a hippie Bircher. That is, with rather clouded judgment and some nonsense priors in the first place, but curious when it directs attention to odd facts that don't fit the mainstream narrative. [1] Like the village idiot whose ravings contain clues to plot secrets in some computer RPGs.

(when I said "the Bush regime", I didn't mean all the standard left-of-center complaints about how he was evil, stupid and killed puppies - although I agree with the last two - but the genuinely irrational-looking stuff like the connections with fringe groups and the CIA's rumoured odd activities)

P.S. Wow, that guy's T-shirts are quite awfully designed.

P.P.S. And still it's clearly worth reading, at least in matters which are somewhat above mere conspiracies and politics:

"If you draw the timelines," said futurologist Ian Pearson, "realistically by 2050 we would expect to be able to download your mind into a machine, so when you die it's not a major career problem." Pearson is sometimes credited with the invention of that fouler of distinction between home and office, text messaging. And given how all the futurist fantasies of increased leisure time have panned out, no one should take comfort in the prospect that death itself need not encumber job performance. Even though pensionable age and benefits continue to be rolled back vindictively, there was always at least the promise of the peace of the grave.

When it's Hanson talking about the glorious future of Ems, the self-styled "rationalists" - I'm not talking about the LW majority, but the thinking patterns characteristic of some of the Overcoming Bias old guard - smile and nod. When it's a somewhat disturbed and not overly logical guy warning sincerely about the looming Hell on Earth - factually, the same thing - they groan with annoyance at the pathetic Luddites and their mental disease known as "humanity".

Obvious devil-worshipping "rationalist" cults like Objectiivism are only the tip of the iceberg here; we're talking about some rather shocking spiritual and cultural erosion, handwaved as "non-neurotypicality" or "contrarianism" when it is at all acknowledged. (I'm not saying that there's something horribly wrong with non-neurotypicality or contrarianism per se, as they are, but there's nothing wrong with patriotism per se either, and you know who else was patriotic? [Godwin's law])

By God, Will, I feel like I understand your concerns so much better now!

P.S. I know, I know, it's kinda hypocritical of me to criticize a community member as morally corrupt after telling another guy to cut that shit out, but I can't help it, I'm really spooked by this kind of people.

[1] Sorry, I missed this footnote when writing the comment, and now I forgot what it was. Silly me :(

Also, damn, it's a bit of a jolt to encounter someone who thinks of the world's course in the same Gnostic terms that I often entertain. I too have been associating the spectre of anti-religious, anti-ideological, technocratic tyranny that's haunting us with the supposed iron "logic", runaway reductionism and blind hubris of the Archons, as relayed by the ancients and by latter-day SF visionaries like Dick.

(All aboard! We're off for -10 rating in 3... 2... 1...)

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How can we get more and better LW contrarians?

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How can we get more and better LW contrarians?

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