NNOTM comments on The Quick Bayes Table - Less Wrong

33 Post author: farsan 18 April 2012 06:00PM

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Comment author: NNOTM 19 August 2013 08:47:02PM 0 points [-]

I know this is over a year old, but I still feel like this is worth pointing out:

If you can get the positive likelihood ratio as the meaning of a positive result, then you can use the negative likelihood ratio as the meaning of the negative result just reworking the problem.

You weren't using the likelihood ratio, which is one value, 8.33... in this case. You were using the numbers you use to get the likelihood ratio.

But the same likelihood ratio would also occur if you had 8% and 0.96%, and then the "negative likelihood ratio" would be about 0.93 instead of 0.22.

You simply need three numbers. Two won't suffice.