CarlShulman comments on A question about Eliezer - Less Wrong

33 Post author: perpetualpeace1 19 April 2012 05:27PM

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Comment author: ArisKatsaris 19 April 2012 07:21:20PM *  13 points [-]

Here's two recent bets he made, both successful: He made a prediction against the propagation of any information faster than c and in a nearby thread a similar bet against the so-called proof of inconsistency for Peano Arithmetic.

And here's a prediction against the discovery of Higgs Boson, as yet undetermined.

Comment author: CarlShulman 19 April 2012 08:34:39PM *  13 points [-]

Also got Amanda Knox right. As others said, he made bad predictions about transhumanist technologies as a teen, although he would say this was before he benefited from learning about rationality and disavowed them (in advance).

Comment author: APMason 20 April 2012 07:25:11AM 6 points [-]

Although I agree that he got the Amanda Knox thing right, I don't think it actually counts as a prediction - he wasn't saying whether or not the jury would find her innocent the second time round, and as far as I can tell no new information came out after Eliezer made his call.

Comment author: gwern 20 April 2012 03:16:15PM 9 points [-]

As I pointed out in the postmortem, there were at least 3 distinct forms of information that one could update on well after that survey was done.