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Tetronian comments on A question about Eliezer - Less Wrong
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Rather than talking about Eliezer as if he's not here and trying to make complicated inferences based on his writings, it would be much easier to come up with a list of topics we would like Eliezer to make predictions about, and then just ask him.
Or, alternatively: Eliezer, are there any particularly important predictions you got right/wrong in the past? And what important predictions of yours are still pending?
You don't see anything wrong with errorchecking a person by asking them?
There's a lot wrong with it, but I think it's better than trying to track implicit predictions based on things Eliezer wrote/did.
Regardless, the much better test of accuracy is asking for current predictions, which I also proposed in the parent comment.