HonoreDB comments on A question about Eliezer - Less Wrong

33 Post author: perpetualpeace1 19 April 2012 05:27PM

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Comment author: HonoreDB 20 April 2012 12:02:09AM 8 points [-]
Comment author: buybuydandavis 20 April 2012 02:20:40AM 6 points [-]

That is awesome! They actually put out their data.

Pretty much, Krugman successfully predicted that the downturn would last a while (2-6,8,15), made some obvious statements (7,9,12,16,17,18), was questionably supported on one (11), was unfairly said to miss another (14), hit on a political prediction (10), and missed on another (13).

He was 50-50 or said nothing, except for successfully predicting that the downturn would take at least a couple of years, which wasn't going out too far on a limb itself.

So I can't say that I'm impressed much with the authors of the study, as their conclusions about Krugman seem like a gross distortion to me, but I am very impressed that they released their data. That was civilized.