gwern comments on What deserves cryocide? - Less Wrong

15 Post author: rlpowell 19 April 2012 11:24PM

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Comment author: rlpowell 20 April 2012 12:38:00AM *  3 points [-]

It says: 14.2 out of 100 men of European ethnicity who share Robin Powell's genotype will develop Alzheimer's Disease between the ages of 50 and 79.

Apparently, according to 23andMe, the normal incidence in european men in that age range is 7.2%, so it's "only" twice as likely.

Comment author: gwern 20 April 2012 12:43:49AM 3 points [-]

So your 14% is for a range that overlaps with a 19% range... Might want to investigate your risk a little more carefully, eg. what's your total lifetime risk with that info compared with the base-rate lifetime risk for people with your life expectancy?