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pedanterrific comments on Please Don't Fight the Hypothetical - Less Wrong
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So your issue isn't actually with (moral) reasoning under uncertainty or the trolley problem in general, it's just with highly specific, really bad examples. Gotcha.
I think in general, if you find your plans to be complicated, involve causing someone else a large up-front cost, and you have very high confidence in the plan, the moral thing is to audit your certainty.