JoshuaZ comments on Muehlhauser-Wang Dialogue - Less Wrong

24 Post author: lukeprog 22 April 2012 10:40PM

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Comment author: JoshuaZ 24 April 2012 04:06:47AM 0 points [-]

Every single proxy for intelligence indicates a fairly dramatic gap in intelligence in favour of Wang

Can you state explicitly what proxies you are using here that you think indicate a dramatic gap?

Comment author: semianonymous 24 April 2012 04:17:31AM *  3 points [-]

Accomplishments of all kinds, the position, the likelihood that Wang has actually managed to move from effectively lower class (third world) to upper class (but I didn't look up where he's from, yet), etc.

What proxies do you think would indicate Luke is more intelligent? I can't seem to think of any.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 24 April 2012 04:48:13AM *  6 points [-]

Accomplishments of all kinds, the position, the likelihood that Wang has actually managed to move from effectively lower class (third world) to upper class (but I didn't look up where he's from, yet), etc.

Wang is accomplished to the point where one can immediately see it simply from glancing at his CV. However, accomplishments are only a rough measure of intelligence. By some metrics, Conscientiousness is a better predictor of success than raw intelligence, and by many metrics it is at least as good a predictor. Relying on academic success as a metric of intelligence isn't that reliable unless one is doing something like comparing the very top in a field. This also makes little sense given that Luke isn't a member of academia.

The claim about the third world is puzzling- Wang is Chinese (a fact that I would think would be obvious from his name, and took me two seconds to verify by looking at his CV) and China has never been considered third world, but rather was (when the term made more sense) second world. Moreover, this isn't just an argument over the meaning of words- China's GDP per a capita, average education level, average literacy level[1], or almost any other metric you choose is far higher than that of most countries classically considered to be in the third world.

Wang is also older than Luke. Wang finished his undergraduate degree in 1983, so he's approximately in his early fifties now. Pei Wang has therefore had far more time to accomplish things. So simply lining up their accomplishment levels doesn't work. (Although Wang clearly does have some accomplishments at a fairly young age, such as his thesis being selected for an Outstanding Dissertation Award by his university.)

What proxies do you think would indicate Luke is more intelligent? I can't seem to think of any.

I'm not sure why this question is being asked. I'm not aware of any either but it really doesn't have much to do with the matter at hand. You've claimed not just that Wang is likely to be more intelligent but that "Every single proxy for intelligence indicates a fairly dramatic gap in intelligence"- that requires a lot more than simply not having any obvious pointers for Luke to be smarter. Overall, I'm deeply unconvinced that either one is more intelligent. This isn't an issue of Luke being more intelligent. This is an issue of very little data in general.

[1] Some of the entries in that list are measured with different metrics, so this isn't a perfect comparison.

Comment author: wedrifid 24 April 2012 06:14:04AM -2 points [-]

Wang is also older than Luke. Wang finished his undergraduate degree in 1983, so he's approximately in his early fifties now. Pei Wang has therefore had far more time to accomplish things.

And, it must be noted, more time to crystallize intuitions formed based off the common sense from yesteryear.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 24 April 2012 06:25:37AM 0 points [-]

That isn't relevant for the immediate issue of intelligence evaluation. It may be relevant to the general point at hand, but it sounds worryingly like a fully general counterargument.

Comment author: wedrifid 24 April 2012 06:37:42AM *  -1 points [-]

That isn't relevant for the immediate issue of intelligence evaluation.

It was a tangent of general interest to the progress of science. It could have been made purely as a relevant-to-intelligence-evaluation point if it were expanded by pointing to the well understood relationship of fluid and crystallized intelligence as they change over time.

It may be relevant to the general point at hand, but it sounds worryingly like a fully general counterargument.

It is merely something that tempers the degree to which the fully general argument "This person is more experienced and has collected more prestige therefore he is right" should be given weight. It would become a 'fully general counterargument' when people started using "nah, she's old" in a general context. When used specifically when evaluating the strength of the evidence indicated by prestige it is simply one of the relevant factors under consideration.

There is a world of difference between a minor point of general relevance to the evaluation of a specific kind of evidence and a "fully general counter-argument". The abuse of the former would be required for the latter charge to be justified - and that isn't the case here.

Comment author: JoshuaZ 24 April 2012 06:38:35AM *  0 points [-]

Good point.

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 24 April 2012 10:56:10AM 4 points [-]

If accomplishments is the only proxy you use to evaluate their relative intelligence, then it would have been all-around better if you had said "more accomplished" rather than "more intelligent", as it's more precise, less controversial, and doesn't confuse fact with inference.

Comment author: semianonymous 24 April 2012 06:45:45PM *  -2 points [-]

It also does not present valid inference. Ideally, you're right but in practice people do not make the inferences they do not like.

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 24 April 2012 06:52:07PM *  2 points [-]

It also does not present valid inference.

If you wanted to present the inference, then present it as an inference.

e.g. "more accomplished (and thus I conclude more intelligent)" would have been vastly better than what you did, which was to just present your conclusion in a manner that would inevitably bait others to dispute it/take offense against it.