Today's post, Bell's Theorem: No EPR "Reality" was originally published on 04 May 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
(Note: This post was designed to be read as a stand-alone, if desired.) Originally, the discoverers of quantum physics thought they had discovered an incomplete description of reality - that there was some deeper physical process they were missing, and this was why they couldn't predict exactly the results of quantum experiments. The math of Bell's Theorem is surprisingly simple, and we walk through it. Bell's Theorem rules out being able to locally predict a single, unique outcome of measurements - ruling out a way that Einstein, Podolsky, and Rosen once defined "reality". This shows how deep implicit philosophical assumptions can go. If worlds can split, so that there is no single unique outcome, then Bell's Theorem is no problem. Bell's Theorem does, however, rule out the idea that quantum physics describes our partial knowledge of a deeper physical state that could locally produce single outcomes - any such description will be inconsistent.
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Jaynes is misunderstanding the class of hidden-variable theories Bell's theorem rules out: the point is that the hidden variables λ would determine the outcome of measurements, i.e. P(A|aλ) is 0 for certain values of λ and 1 for all other values, and likewise for P(B|bλ), in which case P(A|abλ) must equal P(A|aλ), P(B|Aabλ) must equal P(B|bλ), and eq. 14 does equal eq. 15. (I had noticed this mistake several years ago, but I didn't know whom to tell about.)
Good catch! Jaynes does not seem to restrict the local hidden variables models to just the deterministic ones, but allows probabilistic ones, as well. This seems to defeat the purpose of introducing hidden variables to begin with. Or maybe I misunderstand what he means.