See also: Boltzmann brains.
However, you've no evidence that you're not a Boltzmann brain. You choose to accept on faith that you are not and, desiring to be consistent and even-handed, you further choose to accept on faith that the entire visible universe is just as complex as it seems to be (which would likely be false if e.g. we're in a simulation).
You point out that adopting such priors requires biting an unpleasant bullet. This is not a reason for someone not to adopt it and indeed bite the bullet. The real reason is purely psychological: people don't want to accept a Boltzmann prior, they're not built that way.
Of course I write this from the POV of someone who does not accept the Boltzmann prior. From the POV of someone who does, time itself does not properly exist - or at least they always expect to cease coherently thinking in the few seconds with overwhelming probability - so an explanation based on psychology is problematic since psychology takes time to happen in a brain...
Today's post, Bell's Theorem: No EPR "Reality" was originally published on 04 May 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).
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