Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on The ideas you're not ready to post - Less Wrong

24 Post author: JulianMorrison 19 April 2009 09:23PM

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Comment author: Psy-Kosh 26 April 2009 07:12:50PM 11 points [-]

I'm kind of thinking of doing a series of posts gently spelling out step by step the arguments for Bayesian decision theory. Part of this is for myself: I've read a while back Omohundro's vulnerability argument, but felt there were missing bits that I had to personally fill in, assumptions I had to sit and think on before I could really say "yes, obviously that has to be true". Some things that I think I can generalize a bit or restate a bit, etc.

So as much as for myself, to organize and clear that up, as for others, I want to do a short series of "How not to be stupid (given unbounded computational power)" In which in each each post I focus on one or a small number of related rules/principles of Bayesian Decision theory and epistemic probabilities, and gently derive those from the "don't be stupid" principle. (Again, based on Omohundro's vulnerability arguments and the usual dutch book arguments for Bayesian stuff, but stretched out and filled in with the details that I personally felt the need to work out, that I felt were missing.)

And I want to do it as a series, rather than a single blob post so I can step by step focus on a small chunk of the problem and make it easier to reference related rules and so on.

Would this be of any use to anyone here though? (maybe a good sequence for beginners, to show one reason why Bayes and Decision Theory is the Right Way?) Or would it be more clutter than anything else?

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 26 April 2009 07:27:30PM 1 point [-]

It's got my upvote.