TimS comments on Survey of older folks as data about one's future values and preferences? - Less Wrong

18 Post author: Bart119 27 April 2012 07:42PM

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Comment author: gwern 27 April 2012 10:16:22PM *  15 points [-]

I've looked because it's an interesting modesty argument: if older people reliably are more conservative and have more information, on what grounds do you not immediately become conservative yourself? (And variations thereof.)

Has anyone looked systematically at what projected older versions of themselves would think, based on what relevant groups of existing older folks think?...My dim recollection of studies is that on the whole as people age they tend to be less idealistic, more resigned to society the way it is rather than how it might be, and more constrained by realities of politics and economics (for starters).

There's an obvious confound: the aging itself induces negative changes. 'resigned' can just be a synonym for 'tired' or 'lacking in energy'. Aging also introduces many other negatives - your intelligence takes massive hits: http://www.gwern.net/DNB%20FAQ#aging I'm 24, so compared to my 60 year old, I'm something like 1.5-2 standard deviations smarter (disclaimers: average, z-scores over general population, I hope to do better, etc.).

My IQ is somewhere in the 130s, and a standard deviation is usually something like 12-15 points, so taking advice from my future self would be like taking advice from a normal 100 IQ person now! I don't pay terribly much attention to what such people say... I'd still pay a lot of attention to any message from the future because my future dim elderly self has all the fruits of my higher IQ periods to draw on, but this observation is enough to largely eliminate the interest of contemporary averages.

Also interesting is politics; here the confound is simply that the 19th-20th centuries have seen widespread partisan shifts in particular directions, which means age will correlate strongly with politics unless people are completely spineless. Here the evidence favors me not shifting my liberal libertarian beliefs, because that's the tendency of old people in general - to shift to be more liberal than their cohort began as: http://www.gwern.net/DNB%20FAQ#fn85

(This could just reflect pressure to conform by all the younger cohorts - but if you're willing to make excuses like that, the majoritarian/modesty argument goes right out the window in general!)

Comment author: TimS 27 April 2012 11:32:49PM 3 points [-]

Also interesting is politics; here the confound is simply that the 19th-20th centuries have seen widespread partisan shifts in particular directions, which means age will correlate strongly with politics unless people are completely spineless.

I strongly suspect that this effect utterly swamps any other effect. Although I'm less confident of this assertion than I was before looking at the study you cited.

Even if attitudes move towards mainstream among older cohorts faster than among younger cohorts, I get the impression that the mainstream is moving faster than the attitude change. A difference between first and second derivatives of attitude? Or am I still relying on stereotype?

Comment author: gwern 28 April 2012 12:05:02AM 2 points [-]

I get the impression that the mainstream is moving faster than the attitude change. A difference between first and second derivatives of attitude?

Yes. The old people are still conservative-er, although they've moved a lot towards the younger cohorts' attitudes.