TimS comments on Survey of older folks as data about one's future values and preferences? - Less Wrong
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Comments (42)
I definitely endorse this. It just wasn't a problem for me and I was generalizing from one example when I shouldn't.
In terms of how likely a decision is to be regretted, there's an obvious difference between decisions by a 16 year old and decisions by a 25 year old. Learning that 95% of 60-year-olds regret body piercing doesn't tell us about the difference we care about (decisions by the 25-year-old) because the majority of piercing decisions are made by those (teenagers) we expect would regret just about any major decision. The argument is weaker because the statistic doesn't show what you assert it shows.