I'm afraid I can't accept your example at this point, because based on my priors and the information I have at hand (the probability of guilt that you gave was 10x lower than the next lowest estimate, it doesn't look like you managed to convince anyone else to adopt your level of confidence during the discussions, absence of other evidence indicating that you have much better Bayesian skills than the LW average), I have to conclude that it's much more likely that you were originally overconfident, and are now again.

Can you either show me that I'm wrong to make this conclusion based on the information I have, or give me some additional evidence to update on?