ciphergoth comments on The Sin of Underconfidence - Less Wrong

55 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 20 April 2009 06:30AM

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Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 24 April 2009 10:19:40AM *  5 points [-]

I skimmed several debates with WLC yesterday, referenced here. His arguments are largely based on one and the same scheme:

  1. Everythng must have a cause
  2. Here's a philosophical paradox for you, that can't be resolved within the world
  3. Since despite the paradox, some fact still holds, it must be caused by God, from outside the world

(Or something like this, the step 3 is a bit more subtle than I made it out to be.) What's remarkable, even though he uses a nontrivial number of paradoxes for the step 2, almost all of them were explicitly explained in the material on Overcoming Bias. At least, I was never confused while listening to his arguments, whereas some of his opponents were, on some of the arguments. I don't see WLC as possessing magical oratorial skills, but he bends the facts on occasion, and is very careful in what he says. Also, his presentations are too debugged to be alive, so it looks unnatural.

The general meta-counterargument would be to break this scheme, as he could present some paradox (e.g. anthropics) without clear known resolution, and through it bend his line. I'm sure he knows lots of paradoxes, so there is a real danger of encountering an unknown one.

He knows Bayesian math. On one occasion, he basically replied to a statement that there is no evidence for God that it's only relevant if you expect more evidence for God if it exists, as opposed to if it doesn't, and if you expect no evidence in both cases, this fact can't be lowered a priori probability. This, of course, contradicts the rest of his arguments, but I guess he'll say that those arguments are some different kind of evidence.

Comment author: ciphergoth 24 April 2009 10:56:42AM 12 points [-]

Many of WLC's arguments have this rough structure:

  • Here's a philosophical brain teaser. Doesn't it make your head spin?
  • Look, with God we can shove the problem under the carpet
  • Therefore, God.

That's why I think that in order to debate him you have to explicitly challenge the idea that God could ever be a good answer to anything; otherwise, you disappear down the rabbit hole of trying to straighten out the philosophical confusions of your audience.

Comment author: MBlume 25 April 2009 02:26:31AM 1 point [-]

"saying 'God' is an epistemic placebo -- it gives you the feeling of a solution without actually solving anything"

something like that?

Comment author: ciphergoth 25 April 2009 10:46:12AM 2 points [-]

Well, you could start with something like that, but you're going to have to set out why it doesn't solve anything. Which I think means you're going to have to make the "lady down the street is a witch; she did it" argument. Making that simple enough to fit into a debate slot is a real challenge, but it is the universal rebuke to everything WLC argues.

Comment author: pnrjulius 12 June 2012 03:32:46AM 2 points [-]

I like to put it this way: Religion is junk food. It sates the hunger of curiosity without providing the sustenance of knowledge.