Vladimir_Nesov comments on The Sin of Underconfidence - Less Wrong

55 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 20 April 2009 06:30AM

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Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 24 April 2009 04:33:31PM 0 points [-]

If we shouldn't expect evidence in either case then the probability of God's existence is just the prior, right? How could P(God) be above .5? I can't imagine thinking that the existence of an omnipotent, omniscient and benevolent being who answers prayers and rewards and punishes the sins of mortals with everlasting joy or eternal punishment was a priori more likely than not.

Contradiction: answered prayers is lots of evidence.

Comment author: Jack 24 April 2009 05:16:18PM 0 points [-]

I looking at the concept of God and trying to guess what the priors would be for a being that meets that description. That description usually includes answering prayers. If there is evidence of answered prayers then we might want to up the probability of God's existence- but a being capable of doing that is going to be some complex that extraordinary evidence is necessary to come to the conclusion one exists.

Comment author: William 24 April 2009 04:40:19PM 0 points [-]

Only if you have some sort of information about the unanswered prayers.

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