DanielLC comments on Logical Uncertainty as Probability - Less Wrong

3 Post author: gRR 29 April 2012 10:26PM

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Comment author: DanielLC 29 April 2012 10:42:01PM -2 points [-]

There's still a problem. Suppose you watch someone calculate out the millionth digit of pi. Given what you wrote, it seems like the probability will be one. If someone did this, they'd almost definitely mess up, and the true answer would be 1/2.

The probability should decrease with each additional step, as you may have made a mistake.