And Bayesian inference certainly does not offer any suggestion that you should look at who's pulling balls out of the urn and see what he has up his sleeves.
I just facepalmed the hardest I've ever done while reading Unqualified Reservations. That is, not very hard - Mencius is nothing if not a charming and polite author - but still. Maybe he really ought to read at least one Sequence!
polite author
From the little Moldbug I've been able to slog through, my main impression of him is "reader-hostile". If he were polite maybe he would get to the effing point already.
Here's the new thread for posting quotes, with the usual rules: